How solar energy got so cheap - Cheap solar is a policy success story
2009年以降、太陽光発電の価格は90％下落しました。これは偶然の産物ではありません。米国、ドイツ、中国の政策介入によるものです。政策アナリストのグレゴリー・ネメットが言うように、「一国の責任ではないのです。競争というより、リレーレースのようなものだった。とはいえ、知識、人材、技術、政策のグローバルな流れが、1976年に100ドル以上だったワット単価を、現在では50セント以下にまで引き下げることに貢献したと、Our World in Dataの人々は分析しています。太陽光発電の成功から適切な教訓を得ることができれば、地球の居住性を維持し、気候変動による最悪の影響を回避するために必要な技術を開発・展開するのに役立つかもしれません。Nemetとの対話と、太陽光発電のコストを引き下げる政策については、ビデオをご覧ください。(English) Since 2009, the price of solar energy has fallen by 90 per cent. That's no coincidence. It results from policy interventions from the US to Germany to China.
As policy analyst Gregory Nemet puts it, "No one country is responsible. It was more of a relay race than a competition. Nevertheless, the global flow of knowledge, people, technology and policy helped bring the price per watt down from more than $100 in 1976 to less than 50 cents today, according to this analysis by the folks at Our World in Data.
If we can learn the proper lessons from solar's success, it could help us develop and deploy the technologies we need to keep our planet habitable and avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Watch the video to see more of our conversation with Nemet and the policies that have driven down the cost of solar.
How solar energy got so cheap - Cheap solar is a policy success story
//Summary - Level-C2//
Solar energy has become 90% more affordable since 2009 due to concerted global policy efforts. The US initiated solar research in the 1970s, which Japan and Germany later expanded. Japan's focus on small-scale solar technology paved the way for Germany's feed-in tariffs, which incentivised large-scale solar production. China's entry into the market further drove down prices, inspiring other countries, including the US, to create their solar needs. As a result of political leaders' investments, solar energy is now cheaper than fossil fuels, providing a roadmap for developing and deploying other sustainable technologies.
1)
The year is 1953.
The US buys this from Bell Labs... the first commercial silicon solar cell.
But these first solar cells are not very efficient.
Putting them on your roof and trying to generate electricity would cost you about $300,000 a month.
2)
Fast forward 70 years, and that cost has come down.
Way down.
Solar energy is the cheapest it's ever been... almost 90% more affordable than in 2009.
In many places, it is now cheaper to generate solar power than coal, natural gas or nuclear power.
3)
This is an unqualified success story.
And if we can learn the proper lessons from it... this story can help us develop and deploy all the other technologies we need to keep our planet livable.
4)
They just got cheap so fast.
It's a truly remarkable breakthrough that will define the 21st century.
So how did solar energy go from prohibitively expensive to cheaper than fossil fuels?
"We are now in an energy crisis."
5)
In the 1970s, with the oil crisis, there was a real push for research and development into alternative energy.
"Today, by harnessing the sun's power directly, we're taking the energy that God gave us and using it to replace our dwindling supplies of fossil fuels".
6)
With Project Independence, as it was called, the US federal government committed more than $8 billion to solar research and development.
That made a huge difference and probably doubled the efficiency of cells.
7)
It was a guy called Paul Maycock from Texas Instruments.
-Oh, like the calculators?
-Yes!
He worked on calculators, and he found for calculators... the more they built, the cheaper the calculators got.
8)
And he said the same with solar.
If we build more, the cost will come down.
But President Reagan cancelled Project Independence before the US could test Maycock's idea.
9)
Fortunately, two countries were ready to step in and test Maycock's hypothesis.
Like the US, Japan had been hit hard by the oil crisis of the 1970s.
They began funding solar research and development around the same time and soon developed small and powerful solar cells to power watches, calculators and toys.
10)
Trivial in terms of the global energy system but crucial in that big companies became interested in solar and figured out how to build solar at a meagre, low cost.
This know-how came in handy when the Japanese government announced a significant subsidy for rooftop solar in the mid-90s.
11)
But the global market for solar technology was still relatively small.
Until Germany stepped in and changed the game.
If I had to pick one, the most critical policy in this chain would be the German feed-in tariff.
"Feed-in tariffs "were a programme to deploy solar on a large scale.
12)
Here's how it worked.
In 2000, the German government said to the power companies, "Hey, if you can begin to produce renewable energy, we will buy it from you."
"We promise to pay you double the market price and will keep paying you at that rate for the next 20 years."
13)
And so, for developers of solar projects in Germany, it suddenly became a no-brainer to do this.
Even though Germany is not the sunniest place in the world.
Companies responded to the incentives by building solar farms like this one.
In one year, solar installations increased by a factor of 4, and then it just kept going.
14)
The more panels they produced, the cheaper it became to generate electricity from the sun.
Then another country picked up the baton and made solar cheaper than Maycock could have imagined.
So it started with Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s, who planned for a thousand Chinese students to go abroad and come back and see what they came back with.
15)
A group of students went to the University of New South Wales in Australia, where they worked with a team that made some of the most efficient solar cells in the world.
After a few years, one of those students returned to China and opened the country's first commercial solar manufacturer, Suntech, in 2002.
16)
With this new German law, the company had so much success selling solar panels to Germany. Suntech's success attracted competitors who helped drive down prices, partly because all this demand inspired Chinese manufacturers to produce on an unprecedented scale.
Politicians worldwide noticed the falling prices and wrote laws to create new markets in their countries, including the United States.
17)
The United States has passed an important law.
It's called the Energy Policy Act of 2005.
And buried deep within it was an investment tax credit.
It sIt sounds boring, but it turned out to be critical to solar deployment because it said that if you put a new solar project out, you could get 30% of that cost back for a tax credit.
18)
This sparked a phenomenon called solar leasing, where companies looked for places to put solar panels to reduce the amount they owed the federal government in taxes.
Other policies helped create markets for solar panels in Spain, Italy and, crucially, China.
19)
The Chinese devised their subsidy programme, modelled on the German one, where you get a guaranteed price.
By 2011, China was not only the largest producer of solar panels but also the largest producer of solar electricity.
20)
In a single lifetime, it has become the cheapest way to bring clean, reliable electricity to billions of people worldwide.
But the markets that brought us these lower prices didn't just magically appear by some invisible hand.
21)
Political leaders in countries around the world created these markets and then subsidised them for decades to the tune of billions of dollars.
By investing that money, you've brought the cost of solar down to the point where you don't need to subsidise it.
22)
We're doing that deliberately with things like batteries and electric vehicles.
We're doing it with things like heat pumps.
Solar has given us a playbook on how to do that with other technologies.
How solar energy got so cheap - Cheap solar is a policy success story
https://www.vox.com/videos/23682054/solar-policy-cost-us-germany-china
How solar energy got so cheap
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8Vtb0bn30M
Solar power got cheap. So why aren't we using it more?
https://www.popsci.com/story/environment/cheap-renewable-energy-vs-fossil-fuels/
//Summary -Level-C2//
Despite solar power's decreasing costs, renewables have not replaced fossil fuels at the expected rate due to existing infrastructure, investments, and policies favouring fossil fuels. In addition, factors such as state-regulated monopolies, long-term contracts, and grid limitations hinder the transition to renewable energy. A carbon fee could help address these issues, while buyouts of the fossil fuel industry could facilitate a quicker transition to a green economy.
A)
Delays to a green transition
Despite a massive drop in costs, renewables haven't replaced fossil fuels at the rate you might expect. That's because the investments, policies, and very infrastructure of the energy industry as a whole are very much skewed in favour of fossil fuels.
While it is cheaper to build renewables when considering a new plant, that metric doesn't necessarily apply to running a fossil fuel plant that already exists, explains Ashley Langer, an energy economist at the University of Arizona. Sometimes, she adds, the regulatory structure of utilities makes it more profitable to keep a coal or natural gas plant running.
B)
Langer says this is especially true for the state-regulated monopolies that supply power in about half of US states. These investor-owned utilities are guaranteed a specific rate of return on their investment in power facilities, which ensures continued earnings in exchange for running those plants. So even if the actual market costs of their energy sources would make operations costly, these monopolies are set up so that that's not a concern.
C)
"The thing that's preventing us from rapidly transitioning is the lock-in effect," says Paul. "We have existing fossil plants where we've already paid to build them, and the cost of producing one more unit of electricity is cheaper from using existing infrastructure than building new infrastructure in most cases. So given that we've already paid the upfront cost of this fossil fuel infrastructure, the economics don't quite line up yet where we will facilitate a rapid phase-out of fossil fuel plants before the end of their life cycle."
That may change soon, though. Building new renewables is becoming increasingly competitive with the cost of adding additional capacity to fossil fuel facilities. In the 2020 Lazard analysis, power's lifetime costs (including subsidies) are $31 per megawatt-hour for utility solar and $26 per megawatt-hour for wind. Increasing capacity was $41 for coal and $28 for natural gas.
D)
In addition to being heavily invested in fossil fuels, the system has a lot of inertia due to long-term contracts between utilities, energy producers, and mining companies. And since the country's total energy use is not increasing yearly, there isn't much incentive to build new renewables.
Market forces and monopolies aside, there are few other, more tangible barriers to a widespread renewable rollout.
E)
Sun and wind aren't consistent throughout the day or the year, and sometimes the best places for power don't have many people living there. The windiest parts of the country—often in the interior regions like the Great Plains—have fewer people to use that power than crowded coastal cities. The ageing American electrical grid can't currently distribute power from renewables over long distances, says Matt Oliver, Georgia Institute of Technology energy economist.
F)
That's one thing for coal, which is already on its way out, but Langer points out that the proliferation of new natural gas since 2005 will be a challenge for those big climate goals. Those new plants could efficiently run for decades as long as nothing stops energy producers and utilities from making a profit. To make matters more challenging, forced closures could affect people's energy bills. "If you retire the natural gas plants sooner, rates will rise," says Langer. "It's either going to come out of your taxes, or it's going to come into your electricity bills."
G)
Of course, just letting the plants keep running and the planet keeps warming will, in the long run, be far more costly to humanity than shutting fossil fuels down. But those shutdown costs are still a reality shortly. All four economists PopSci talked to for this article said that instituting a carbon fee would help ensure that polluters are paying their fair share of that price. This could be a cap and trade market or a tax on every ton of emissions produced. Right now, there's no tax on carbon pollution, which means all the costs of increased atmospheric carbon are shouldered by ecosystems and individuals, who pay in ways like rising air conditioning and health care costs. (It's like socialism, but only for the powerful and polluting, you could say).
H)
While enacting a price per ton of carbon would affect energy bills and expenses at the pump, some governments have developed progressive solutions. In British Columbia, for instance, proceeds from the country's carbon fee are paid out to the public as taxable dividends.
I)
With low oil prices, some argue this is a prime time to buy out the fossil fuel industry. A one-time buyout would allow the federal government to rapidly shut down fossil fuel plants and stop their political influence. "We need to dismantle the existing fossil fuel economy," says Paul. "And if we don't… the market force behind building that green economy will be slow."
Add info)
Q1. Acquisitions of the fossil fuel industry could facilitate a faster transition to a green economy. Do you think this is possible?
What would it take for giant corporations and governments to change their minds?
A1-> Acquiring the fossil fuel industry could theoretically facilitate a faster transition to a green economy. However, this would require significant political will, financial resources, and cooperation from governments and corporations. Factors that might influence their decisions include:
1. Public opinion and pressure: Increased awareness and demand for climate change mitigation and sustainable practices could push corporations and governments to adopt greener policies.
2. Regulatory frameworks: Governments could implement regulations that encourage or mandate a transition to renewables, such as carbon taxes, subsidies for green technologies, or penalties for excessive emissions.
3. Financial incentives: As renewable energy costs decrease, corporations may become more economically viable to invest in and transition to cleaner energy sources.
4. International agreements and collaboration: Global agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, can set targets and create a shared sense of responsibility among countries, encouraging them to work together and support one another in transitioning to a green economy.
Ultimately, combining these factors, technological advancements, and innovative solutions would be necessary to influence giant corporations and governments to change their energy production and consumption approach.
Q2. What should be done to raise "public opinion and pressure" to deal with climate change?
Mainly the younger generation is actively engaged in demonstrations and protests. But overall, nothing has changed.
We need to join hands with them to fight against huge interests.
What kind of suggestions do you think would be well received by them?
And why do you think it is difficult for the US and other countries to enter transition energy?
A2-> To raise public opinion and pressure to deal with climate change, multiple approaches can be taken:
1. Education: Incorporating climate change education and awareness in school curricula can ensure that future generations are well-informed and prepared to tackle the issue.
2. Public awareness campaigns: Media campaigns, documentaries, and informative programs can be used to educate the general public about the urgency of climate change and the importance of transitioning to renewable energy.
3. Collaboration with influencers: Celebrities, social media influencers, and public figures can be engaged to spread awareness and mobilize support for climate change initiatives.
4. Community engagement: Local organizations, NGOs, and grassroots movements can be instrumental in organizing events, workshops, and discussions to involve communities in the fight against climate change.
5. Corporate involvement: Encourage corporations to adopt environmentally friendly practices, influencing public opinion and increasing sustainability awareness.
Younger generations may respond well to suggestions that empower them to take action, such as:
I am participating in or organizing climate change-related events, protests, and campaigns.
We are encouraging involvement in local environmental organizations and clubs.
They provide platforms and opportunities for youth to voice their concerns and ideas to policymakers and stakeholders.
We are supporting and promoting innovative solutions developed by young entrepreneurs and researchers.
The difficulty in transitioning to renewable energy in the US and other countries can be attributed to several factors:
1. Economic interests: The fossil fuel industry has deep financial ties and significant political influence, challenging shifting away from traditional energy sources.
2. Infrastructure investments: Significant investments have been made in fossil fuel infrastructure, and transitioning to renewables would require considerable financial resources to build new infrastructure.
3. Job security: The fossil fuel industry employs many people, and transitioning to renewable energy may raise concerns about job losses in the short term.
4. Energy reliability: Concerns about the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources (such as solar and wind) and the need for energy storage solutions may slow down the transition.
Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive approach that involves government policies, technological innovations, financial incentives, and public support to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
Q3.I think that "economic interests" is a huge question.
To solve the problem of climate change, including infrastructure and job security, what do you think will trigger this cheap solar power for human development?
For example, we cannot change anything even if an infectious disease like COVID-19 occurs, even if there is a war between Russia and Ukraine, and even if space development advances.
Do we need even more significant breakthroughs?
Please list five and tell me the advantages and disadvantages of each.
A3-> Five potential triggers for utilizing cheap solar power to address climate change, including infrastructure and job security, along with their advantages and disadvantages:
1. Government incentives and regulations:
Advantages:
Encourage the adoption of renewable energy sources by providing subsidies and tax breaks for solar installations.
Set targets for renewable energy usage, driving demand for solar power.
Disadvantages:
It may require reallocation of funds from other sectors or increased taxes.
Political resistance from stakeholders in the fossil fuel industry.
2. Technological advancements in solar power and energy storage:
Advantages:
Improve the efficiency and affordability of solar power, making it more competitive with fossil fuels.
Enable a more reliable and consistent energy supply from solar power.
Disadvantages:
Requires significant investment in research and development.
It may take time to develop and commercialize new technologies.
3. Decentralized and microgrid energy systems:
Advantages:
Allow for more localized solar power generation and distribution, reducing reliance on large-scale fossil fuel power plants.
It can increase energy resiliency and security, especially in remote or disaster-prone areas.
Disadvantages:
Initial setup costs may be high.
In addition, technological and regulatory challenges may impede widespread implementation.
4. Corporate commitment and consumer demand:
Advantages:
Increased demand for renewable energy from corporations and consumers can drive market growth and innovation.
Encourages businesses to adopt sustainable practices and invest in renewable energy.
Disadvantages:
Fluctuations may influence public opinion or economic conditions.
It relies on voluntary action from corporations, which may prioritize short-term profits.
5. International collaboration and agreements:
Advantages:
Facilitates sharing of technology, knowledge, and resources to accelerate the transition to renewable energy.
Encourages countries to work together to achieve common climate goals.
Disadvantages:
The success of international agreements depends on the commitment and cooperation of all participating countries.
Geopolitical tensions and competing interests may hinder collaboration.
While these triggers can drive the adoption of cheap solar power, the effectiveness of each approach depends on a combination of factors, including political will, technological advancements, and the level of public and corporate support. Therefore, pursuing a comprehensive strategy involving multiple triggers is crucial to address the complex challenges of climate change, infrastructure, and job security.
Q4. Every country wants to develop and live a happier life. However, war and poverty have not disappeared. Minority rights, such as women and the weak, are low, and only combat deployments and funding are increasing.
Overall, however, there is no doubt that we are headed for a better world than in the past.
What mindset must we take to use this fantastic new technology like solar power and AI?
A4-> To effectively use transformative technologies like solar power and AI for a better future, we must adopt a mindset that:
1. Prioritizes sustainability and long-term thinking: Understand that our actions today impact future generations. Therefore, we should consider the long-term consequences of decisions and prioritize sustainable solutions that preserve the environment and natural resources.
2. Promotes collaboration and inclusivity: Foster global collaboration to share knowledge, resources, and best practices. Ensure that minority rights and the needs of marginalized communities are considered when developing and deploying new technologies.
3. Encourages innovation and adaptability: Embrace change and be open to adopting new ideas and technologies. This requires a willingness to learn and adapt to evolving circumstances.
4. Emphasizes social responsibility and ethics: Recognize that new technologies must be developed and used responsibly to minimize potential negative consequences. Ethical considerations should be at the forefront of development and implementation, ensuring that technologies contribute to the greater good.
5. Supports education and public awareness: Invest in education and public awareness campaigns to help people understand emerging technologies' benefits and potential risks. This empowers individuals to make informed choices and participate in shaping the future.
6. Balances economic growth and social equity: Strive for a balance between economic growth and social equity, ensuring that technological advancements benefit everyone, not just a select few.
By adopting this mindset, we can harness the potential of solar power, AI, and other emerging technologies to build a more sustainable, equitable, and prosperous world for all.