Is the world ready for mass migration due to climate change
地球温暖化の影響により、今世紀末までに最大 30 億人が住む場所を失うと予想されていますが、これは国境に対する考え方の変化につながるのでしょうか? もし、この地球を地球人類の共同体として捉え、人々が好きな場所に移動できるとしたらどうでしょう。さらに、文化の多様性が増し、イノベーションが向上することが研究で示されています。若い市民や移民が、災害救助、自然回復、農業や社会貢献のために国家的な奉仕活動を行うことも、連帯感を生み出す一歩になるかもしれません。また、歌や創作、スポーツ、パフォーマンスなどを一緒に行い、メンバーが生涯にわたって所属できる社会的グループやクラブも考えられます。このような伝統は、困難な時代における尊厳の維持に役立ち、移民が同化するための愛国的な意味を与えることができます。国境は、地球の大地が提供する可能性の垣根ではなく、文化の豊かさと移り変わりの融合であると考えます。(English) With up to three billion people expected to be displaced by the effects of global warming by the end of the century, should it lead to a shift in how we think about national borders? What if we considered the planet a global commonwealth of humanity in which people could move wherever they wanted? In addition, we would see an increase in cultural diversity, which studies show improves innovation. National service for younger citizens and immigrants to help with disaster relief, nature restoration, and agricultural and social efforts could be another solidarity-creating step. These could include social groups and clubs that sing, create, play sports or perform together, and to which members can belong for life. These traditions can help maintain dignity in hard times and provide patriotic meaning for immigrants to assimilate. See borders as fusions of cultural richness and transitions rather than barriers across the possibilities that Earth's lands offer.
Is the world ready for mass migration due to climate change?
//Summary//
3)
Borders define our fate, life expectancy, identity, and much more.
Yet they are an invention, just like the maps I used to draw.
4)
As global temperatures increase, causing climate change, sea level rise, and extreme weather over the coming decades, unable to adapt to increasingly extreme conditions, millions - or even billions - of people will need to move.
12)
Today just over 3% of the global population are international migrants.
However, migrants contribute around 10% of global GDP or $6.7tn - some $3tn more than they would have produced in their origin countries.
13)
What if we considered the planet a global commonwealth of humanity in which people could move wherever they wanted?
Some economists calculate that enabling free movement could double global GDP.
In addition, we would see an increase in cultural diversity, which studies show improves innovation.
15)
Only strong nation-states will be capable of setting up the systems of governance that will help our species survive climate change.
Only strong nation-states can manage a massive movement of migrants from different geographies and cultures to the native population.
16)
It may instead require a blend between internationalism and nationalism.
In recent decades, globalization has led to greater internationalism - a citizen of London may often feel more commonality with a citizen of Amsterdam or Taiwan than with someone from a small country town in Britain.
17)
This may not matter for many prosperous urbanites.
Still, natives of more rural areas can feel left behind by their own country as once-dominant industries decline and social spaces and cultural traditions dwindle.
This creates resentment and fear that can lead to prejudice against immigrants, as seen in parts of the UK during the Brexit debate.
18)
There are multiple benefits in encouraging commonality, a kinship with our fellows based on our shared societal project, language, and cultural works.
19)
National service for younger citizens and immigrants to help with disaster relief, nature restoration, and agricultural and social efforts could be another solidarity-creating step.
And we may need to restore or invent new national traditions that are environmentally or socially beneficial and for which citizens can feel pride and respect.
20)
These could include social groups and clubs that sing, create, play sports or perform together, and to which members can belong for life.
These traditions can help maintain dignity in hard times and provide patriotic meaning for immigrants to assimilate.
25)
Try, if you will, to clear from your mind the idea of people being fixed to a location they were born in as if it affects your value as a person or your rights as an individual.
As if nationality were anything more than an arbitrary line drawn on a map.
See these lines as fusions of cultural richness and transitions rather than barriers across the possibilities that Earth's lands offer us.
******************
A)
1)
My childhood was spent studying and drawing treasure maps, charting imaginary lands, and plotting routes to faraway places I longed to visit.
Today, my home is plastered with the maps I've collected or been given - reminders of places that are special to me.
2)
The borders are cleanly defined, ink separating nationalities destined for different fates.
For me, these lines mark exciting possibilities, with the potential for exploration and adventure, to visit foreign cultures with different foods and languages.
For others, they are prison walls that limit all possibilities.
B)
3)
Borders define our fate, life expectancy, identity, and much more.
Yet they are an invention, just like the maps I used to draw.
The idea of keeping foreign people out using borders is relatively recent. States used to be far more concerned about stopping people from leaving than preventing their arrival.
They needed their labor and taxes, and emigration still posed a headache for many states.
4)
As global temperatures increase, causing climate change, sea level rise, and extreme weather over the coming decades, unable to adapt to increasingly extreme conditions, millions - or even billions - of people will need to move.
C)
5)
The most densely populated areas of the planet are clustered around the 25-26th north parallels, which has traditionally been the latitude of the most comfortable climate and fertile land.
An estimated 279 million people are packed into this thin band of land, which cuts through countries including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, China, the United States, and Mexico.
6)
Actual livability limits are the borders we must worry about as the world warms over this century, bringing unbearable heat, drought, floods, fires, storms, and coastal erosion that make agriculture impossible and displace people.
Record numbers of people are being forced to flee their homes each year. In 2021, there were 89.3 million people, double the number forcibly displayed a decade ago, and in 2022 that number reached 100 million.
7)
UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi appealed to global leaders at the COP27 climate change conference to take bold action.
"We cannot leave millions of displaced people and their hosts to face the consequences of a changing climate alone," he says.
D)
8)
Migrants contribute around 10% of global GDP or $6.7tn.
Without action, hundreds of millions of people will have to leave their homes by 2050, according to some estimates.
One study from 2020 predicts that by 2070, depending on population growth and warming scenarios.
One to three billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 years.
9)
The global population is still growing, particularly in some regions worst hit by climate change and poverty.
Populations in Africa are set to almost triple by 2100, even as those elsewhere slow in growth.
10)
This means there will be more people in the areas that are likely to be worst affected by extreme heat, drought, and catastrophic storms.
A more significant number of people will also need food, water, power, housing, and resources, just as these become ever harder to supply.
11)
Meanwhile, most countries in the Global North face a demographic crisis in which people do not have enough babies to support an aging population.
Managed mass migration could thus help with many of the world's biggest problems, reducing the number of people living in poverty and climate devastation and assisting northern economies in building their workforce.
12)
Today just over 3% of the global population are international migrants.
However, migrants contribute around 10% of global GDP or $6.7tn - some $3tn more than they would have produced in their origin countries.
13)
Some economists calculate that enabling free movement could double global GDP.
In addition, we would see an increase in cultural diversity, which studies show improves innovation.
At a time when we have to solve unprecedented environmental and social challenges, it could be just what is needed.
E)
13)
What if we considered the planet a global commonwealth of humanity in which people could move wherever they wanted?
Some 60% of the world's population is under 40, half of these (and growing) under 20, and they will form most of the world's people for the rest of this century.
Many of these young, energetic job seekers are likely to be among those moving as the climate changes.
Today, we are experiencing a planetary crisis, and I believe it is time to see ourselves as members of one globally dispersed species that must cooperate to survive.
F)
14)
The tension between the desires and needs of the individual and society is honest and hard enough to reconcile when our society is a small group.
It's hard to care, for example, about a nameless, faceless stranger in a country you've never visited when making choices about your own life in a city thousands of miles from them.
We willingly make small, daily sacrifices of time, energy, and resources as individuals - paying taxes, for instance - to ensure our societies operate. Most of us do this because it's our society, social family, and nation-state.
15)
Only strong nation-states will be capable of setting up the systems of governance that will help our species survive climate change.
Only strong nation-states can manage a massive movement of migrants from different geographies and cultures to the native population.
16)
It may instead require a blend between internationalism and nationalism.
In recent decades, globalization has led to greater internationalism - a citizen of London may often feel more commonality with a citizen of Amsterdam or Taiwan than with someone from a small country town in Britain.
17)
This may not matter for many prosperous urbanites.
Still, natives of more rural areas can feel left behind by their own country as once-dominant industries decline and social spaces and cultural traditions dwindle.
This creates resentment and fear that can lead to prejudice against immigrants, as seen in parts of the UK during the Brexit debate.
G)
18)
Open borders do not have to mean any borders or the abolition of nation-states, though.
There are multiple benefits in encouraging commonality, a kinship with our fellows based on our shared societal project, language, and cultural works.
19)
National service for younger citizens and immigrants to help with disaster relief, nature restoration, and agricultural and social efforts could be another solidarity-creating step.
And we may need to restore or invent new national traditions that are environmentally or socially beneficial and for which citizens can feel pride and respect.
20)
These could include social groups and clubs that sing, create, play sports or perform together, and to which members can belong for life.
These traditions can help maintain dignity in hard times and provide patriotic meaning for immigrants to assimilate.
21)
The new patriotic narrative could be about civic nationalism, based on the common good, with rights and duties, and a passionate cultural attachment to nature, and protecting and conserving places of national (or international) importance.
For example, Costa Rica, a small Central American country with no standing army and instead invests heavily in nature protection and restoration alongside social services such as health and education, used this outlook on life to help define its character and integrate new immigrants.
H)
22)
See these lines as fusions of cultural richness and transitions rather than barriers.
Instead, it can involve the devolution of traditions, an appreciation of regionality, and the enormous cultural value of new citizens.
The European Union is an example of supranational identity that allows citizens to feel they are European and identify with the values of the EU, but without having to give up their national identity.
23)
A similar idea can apply within nations as well as between them.
In the UK, for instance, London's Chinatown is rightly a much-visited tourist destination, as is Little India.
They are part of the nation's identity, even though Chinese Brits and British Indians often face prejudice and socioeconomic disadvantage.
24)
To earn national pride rather than suffer divisive tribalism, a nation must reduce inequality.
The state must invest in the people for the people to feel invested in the state.
That means putting social and environmental issues first in ways that are for the benefit of all rather than a small tribe of global aristocrats.
25)
Try, if you will, to clear from your mind the idea of people being fixed to a location they were born in as if it affects your value as a person or your rights as an individual.
As if nationality were anything more than an arbitrary line drawn on a map.
See these lines as fusions of cultural richness and transitions rather than barriers across the possibilities that Earth's lands offer us.
Is the world ready for mass migration due to climate change?
By Gaia Vince 18th November 2022
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20221117-how-borders-might-change-to-cope-with-climate-migration