Orban Says Ukraine Can’t Win War as He Justifies Veto on Aid

2023年05月25日

ハンガリー首相、ウクライナはロシアの侵略を阻止できないと語る。ハンガリーは引き続きEUの援助とさらなる制裁に反対する。(English) Premier says Ukraine cannot beat back Russia's invasion. Hungary will continue to oppose EU aid and further sanctions.

Orban Says Ukraine Can't Win War as He Justifies Veto on Aid

Premier says Ukraine cannot beat back Russia's invasion

Hungary will continue to oppose E.U. aid and further sanctions

ByZoltan Simon and Veronika Gulyas - 2023/5/23

//Summary -Level-C2//

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban justifies his veto on European Union aid to Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine cannot win the war against Russia. He opposes further sanctions on Russia and calls for an immediate ceasefire. Orban's stance contradicts the views of Ukraine's allies, who support its efforts to repel the invaders. His close ties with Russia have strained relations with E.U. and NATO allies. Orban also criticizes Ukraine for putting a Hungarian bank on its list of international war sponsors, prompting Hungary to block aid and sanctions.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban dug in his heels over crucial European Union aid to Ukraine, offering sympathy for his neighbour but nothing more to help it fight Russia's invasion.

In a Bloomberg interview at the Qatar Economic Forum, Orban argued that Ukraine's military effort is doomed and sending further aid will only lead to more deaths.

"Emotionally, it's tragic; all of our hearts are with the Ukrainians," Orban, 59, told Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait on Tuesday. "But I'm talking as a politician who should save lives."

"There's no chance to win this war," he added.

Hungary, the E.U. nation with the closest ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, is blocking a €500 million-euro ($540 million) tranche of E.U. financial aid to Ukraine. It also opposes new sanctions against Russia.

Orban's view runs counter to the analysis of Ukrainian allies supplying Kyiv with weapons ahead of a counteroffensive expected to begin this spring. While sober about the chances of a dramatic breakthrough, they support President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's plan to beat back the invaders and reclaim territory.

"The Ukrainians have already demonstrated the capability they have to liberate the land and push back the Russians and the importance of the support they get from NATO allies," the alliance's secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said in Brussels in response to Orban's comments. Stoltenberg said Ukraine could "ensure that President Putin does not win this war."

The Hungarian leader reiterated his call for an immediate cease-fire — a stance panned by critics as tantamount to calling for Ukraine's capitulation.

He also echoed the Kremlin by repeating a narrative that framed the war as a proxy conflict between Russia and the U.S. and said the fighting could only stop when Moscow clinches an agreement with Washington. The U.S. has said Ukraine must decide how and when it's ready to seek peace.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry denounced the comments as absolving "Russia of responsibility for its aggression."

"Ukrainians will continue to fight until they completely liberate their territories from Russian occupation," spokesman Oleg Nikolenko wrote on Facebook. "This is the only way to restore peace in Ukraine and guarantee European security."

Orban's approach to Ukraine and close ties with Russia have only exacerbated tensions with Hungary's allies in the E.U. and NATO. Fellow members of the alliances have long criticized his more than decade-long consolidation of power and pursuit of a self-styled "illiberal democracy" with anti-immigrant and LGTBQ policies in a rejection of multicultural values.

Last week, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced Hungary would block further E.U. aid to Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions, citing Kyiv's decision to put OTP Bank Nyrt., Hungary's largest lender on its list of international war sponsors.

On Monday, the foreign minister reaffirmed Hungary's stance at a meeting of E.U. foreign ministers in Brussels, drawing a rebuke from other E.U. members.

"I'm disappointed, or rather irritated, by the behaviour of our Hungarian friends," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters in Brussels.

OTP maintains business in Russia and Ukraine but has said that a presidential decree prevents it from selling its Russian unit. It has rejected claims of supporting Russia's war and has publicly backed Ukraine.

"It's a question of principles," Orban said at the forum. "If a country like Ukraine wants your financial support, if you need our money, please respect us and don't sanction our companies."

Orban added that he hopes former U.S. President Donald Trump will win reelection next year and that, while he has been at odds with President Joe Biden, it was not good for business to criticize the U.S.

Prime Minister Viktor Orban says Hungary is not part of the "mainstream" European Union approach to Ukraine as he explains the country's opposition to providing aid to Ukraine. On Tuesday, he spoke with John Micklethwait at the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha.

Hungarian PM says Ukraine cannot win the war.

https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/articles/2023-05-23/RV467DT0G1KW01

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Why the U.S. 'would be in trouble if Russia didn't invade Ukraine' - 2022/2/20

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/endohomare/20220220-00283005

//Summary -Level-C2//

The United States would face various consequences if Russia didn't invade Ukraine. The U.S. would struggle to restore its credibility after the Afghanistan withdrawal, miss out on economic benefits from the military industry and liquefied natural gas exports, and fail to use the situation to impose sanctions on Russia. Additionally, surrounding countries wouldn't buy weapons from the U.S. for self-defence, and Ukraine's inability to join NATO would remain unresolved. The absence of a Russian invasion would hinder U.S. interests and objectives.

Why would the U.S. be in trouble if Russia didn't invade Ukraine? - 2022/2/20

If Russia invades Ukraine, the United States will benefit in several ways. It will regain some of the credibility it lost when the U.S. military withdrew from Afghanistan, it will enrich the U.S. military industry, it will increase the amount of liquefied natural gas it exports to Europe, and it will improve the U.S. economy, which is suitable for the mid-term elections in the autumn.

Restoring NATO's credibility after the withdrawal from Afghanistan

The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August last year was so bad that NATO, which had cooperated in the occupation and governance of Afghanistan for 20 years, was confused as if a ladder had been removed, and U.S. credibility fell to the ground.

President Biden, who took power from former President Trump, shouted, "America is back!" and declared his return to the international community one after another—lost the international community's credibility.

Thus, on 20 September, Biden held a large-scale military exercise with multinational forces from 15 countries, including Ukraine, and on 23 October, Biden deployed 180 anti-tank missile systems in Ukraine.

In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin amassed some 100,000 Russian troops near the border with Ukraine in late October and early November. He moved to position them around Ukraine.

On 7 December, Biden pressed for a meeting with Putin, and after the meeting, he rejected the idea of sending U.S. troops into Ukraine to prevent a Russian invasion.

This "sent a signal that Putin would not stop a military invasion of Ukraine" and could be positioned as putting Putin's military invasion in a direction where it would be possible.

U.S. to boost liquefied natural gas (LNG) Exports to Beat Russia

Much of Europe's energy is dependent on Russian natural gas.

According to the Quarterly Report Energy on European Gas Markets on the European Commission website, from 2018 to 2021, Europe's natural gas imports will be as follows.

From the European Commission website:

About a third of this will be imported through pipelines from Russia.

The United States is omitted here because Figure 9 deals with pipeline imports, and because the United States is so far away that pipelines cannot be used, LNG is sent by tankers. That is why, even though the figure is country-by-country, there is a category called "LNG".

I think it's an awkward presentation, but it's how the European Commission does things.

In this respect, we must look at Figure 15 of the "Energy Report".

It is shown below.

From the European Commission website:

This is the percentage of European importing countries that focus exclusively on LNG. It is said that the data is calculated based on a charge based on the movement of tankers. Russia (purple) is also included here, so when combined with pipeline exports in Figure 9, Russia's share is quite large.

As the world moves towards clean energy, low-carbon natural gas is hot. Germany, in particular, has been an early proponent of building Nord Stream 2 in partnership with Russia.

But former President Trump wasn't amused and famously didn't get on well with former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who leaned towards Russia. Biden is also trying to dissuade Germany from Nord Stream 2.

Therefore, "Russia invades Ukraine, and we have to impose sanctions on Russia" works well for Biden.

European countries will not buy natural gas from Russia through pipelines but will have to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States. Because more voters will vote for

If Russia were to invade Ukraine, the countries surrounding Ukraine would buy weapons from the United States for self-defence, which would benefit American arms dealers.

U.S. LNG production capacity skyrockets

In fact, according to some reliable information such as Reuters' 8 February information <COLUMN-LNG market dynamics may be shifting to geopolitical drivers> (LNG column market dynamics are shifting to geopolitical drivers), LNG production in the United States is likely to increase by 20% by the end of the year, and LNG exports to Europe, in particular, jumped fourfold year-on-year in January.

https://jp.reuters.com/article/column-russell-lng-idCNL1N2UJ08C

Just saying "Russia is going to invade Ukraine" has caused the phenomenon so far, so it can be said that it has been quite effective.

But on 4 February, Putin visited Beijing to meet Xi Jinping and signed a series of agreements. Articles 13 to 15 discuss energy and say China will buy more natural gas from Russia. Putin may have calculated that even if exports fall due to sanctions imposed by Western countries, Russia will not have much trouble as long as it can secure Chinese demand.

Ukraine cannot join NATO

Putin's demand for Ukraine is "not to join NATO", but first of all, Ukraine cannot join NATO in the current situation.

This is because Article 5 of NATO states that.

A State Party shall consider an armed attack against one or more States Parties in Europe or North America as an armed attack against all States Parties. Consequently, in such an armed attack, each State Party shall exercise its right to individual or collective self-defence, as Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations provides to restore and maintain security in the North Atlantic region. Agrees to assist the State Party under attack by immediately taking action as it deems necessary, including using force as it may deem necessary, individually and jointly with other States Parties. All such armed attacks and the measures taken in response to it shall be immediately reported to the Security Council. Such actions shall cease as soon as the Security Council has taken the steps necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.

Ukraine is, therefore, ineligible to join NATO if it conflicts with Russia.

Knowing this, Biden undertook a political manoeuvre to write into the Ukrainian constitution that "joining NATO should be a goal of aspiration" (see 25 February column <Used and thrown away by Biden (detailed in Ukrainian Grief).

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/endohomare/20220225-00283788

In this vein, Biden put Ukrainian President Zelensky in a "sweet trap, as if he could join NATO".

Of course, Putin should never be forgiven for his military invasion of Ukraine.

But if no one pays attention to Biden's "diplomatic manoeuvre" that led him in that direction, people on earth will not be able to escape war forever.

Orban Says Ukraine Can’t Win War as He Justifies Veto on Aid