Professor Mearsheimer's latest interview + commentary No.1 [The Wagner Rebellion made the Russian army even stronger and Putin's position higher]
米国の政治学者ジョン・ミアシャイマーは、西側諸国はウクライナにおけるロシアの「醜い」勝利に備える必要があり、中国が紛争の「大きな勝者」として浮上するだろうと述べている。(English) US political scientist John Joseph Mearsheimer states that the West must prepare for an "ugly" Russian victory in Ukraine, with China emerging as the "big winner" in the conflict.
2023.07.11 Professor Mearsheimer's latest interview + commentary No.1 [The Wagner Rebellion made the Russian army even stronger and Putin's position higher]
1)
Interview No1:
So let's start with that. What's your take on the aborted cool by the Wagner mercenary group regarding the power dynamics in Moscow and its implications, if any, for the war in Ukraine well.
In the West, there was a lot of wishful thinking about the Mutiny. Many people hoped it would bring down or significantly weaken Putin and allow Ukraine and the West to Prevail over the Russians.
2)
But that did not happen, and I think the Mutiny will improve Putin's position. He'll be more robust.
I believe the relationship between the Wagner group and Yevgeny Prigozhin was unhealthy, particularly on one side and the military on the other.
You cannot run an army without a rational command structure.
3)
I believe that Prajogen was something of a loose cannon, and the result of all this is that Prajogen has been dismissed from the Wagner group or the Wagner group is now going to be placed under the command of the military, and that will make the Russian army a more efficient fighting force.
It's essential to remember that when you start a war, you're taking a peacetime Army.
4)
You'rending it to do something that it has not done in a long time which is fighting a war, is undoubtedly true of the Russian army.
They're to be a lot of problems in the initial stages, and as the battle wears on, those problems get solved, and the military is, in a sense, rationalised.
What happened with the Wagner group is an example of a clunky military system being excused.
As I said a minute ago, I think the result will be that the Russian military is more powerful, which is all for good from a Russian perspective.
5)
Explanation:
The "Wagner Rebellion" is an armed uprising called for on 23 June 2023 by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian private military contractor Wagner Group. Ultimately unsuccessful, Prigozhin went into exile in Belarus.
6)
Commenting on this attempted rebellion, Japanese media such as NHK reported that the "Wagner rebellion exposed Putin's weakness".
The Nikkei Shimbun also reported that "The Wagner rebellion has shaken the government".
I don't know if they are intentional, but they give the impression that "Russia is a dangerous country after all".
7)
However, unlike the significant Japanese and Western media, Professor Mearsheimer believed that "Putin's position will strengthen" and "the Russian military will become more rationalised and stronger".
8)
The rationale is that "relations between the Russian army and Wagner (especially Prigozhin) were unhealthy".
The interview did not specify how they were unhealthy.
9)
However, "Prigozhin was an uncontrollable and dangerous man".
As a result, it is expected that there was a contradiction (disobedience to military orders) between the Russian National Army and Wagner.
10)
"Russia has sent forces to this war in Ukraine that have been out of action for a long time," he said.
He pointed out that the Russian army initially had many problems with its unfamiliar movement due to its lack of combat experience on the battlefield.
The swarm movement was not efficient enough.
11)
In other words, he pointed out that one was the contradiction between the Russian Armed Forces and private military companies, and the other was that the Russian Armed Forces themselves were not sufficiently rationalised (optimised).
12)
In addition, he concluded that the rebellion would make the Russian army leaner and more potent as a national army if Wagner were placed under Russian command.
In other words, Putin's status will also rise.
13)
Professor Mearsheimer is an ex-military man.
He was, therefore, familiar with the chain of command and organisational structure of the military, and it seems that he recognised the need to rationalise the Russian army.
14)
In any case, Professor Mearsheimer's conclusion about this rebellion is that it will be "good for Russia".
I would be interested to see whether this conclusion holds up.
2023.07.11 Latest interview with Professor Mearsheimer + commentary No.2 [Russia takes about 43% of Ukraine's territory]
A)
Interview No2:
Many people talk about the possibility of Russia winning a decisive Victory, which would be one where Russia ended up conquering all of Ukraine.
And as you know, many people have argued for a long time that Russia was determined to conquer all of Ukraine and make it part of a greater Russia. There's no way.
B)
I believe Russia will win a decisive victory; they won't conquer all of Ukraine for various reasons. The result is that Ukraine will lose some big chunk of territory the Russians will destroy.
I believe more than 23 per cent of Ukraine has already been conquered. I guess they will end up destroying about 43 per cent of Ukraine.
C)
They will end up Conquering the Crimean Peninsula and eight different oblasts, representing a reasonably large chunk of Ukrainian territory; close to half the result is that what's left of Ukraine will be a dysfunctional State.
And that dysfunctional State will not be capable of waging a major war against Russia. It will not satisfy the criteria for joining either the EU or NATO, so this is this ugly victory that I talk about that.
D)
I think Russia is going to win again is not going to be a decisive Victory where they conquer all the countries. It's going to be an ugly Victory where Russia conquers.
I would estimate somewhere in the range of 43 per cent of Ukrainian territory, turning what's left of Ukraine into a dysfunctional State.
And I think that will be the result, and I might add that once you get that, you'll have a situation where you have, in effect, a cold piece between the two sides. The Ukrainians will not be happy with this situation.
E)
And they will go to Great Lengths to try to undo i. For its part, the West will help the Ukrainians try to undermine this cold peace and help the Ukrainians regain some of their territories.
The Russians, of course,e will do everything they can to undermine that dysfunctional State.
F)
And the Russians will have terrible relations with the way Wes,t and the Russians will go to Great Lengths to cause trouble in the West so that the West can't cause problems.
Inside Russia so, we have a dark situation regarding the future.
G)
Explanation:
The highlight of this interview is his prediction that "Russia will take 43% of Ukraine".
And specifically "Crimea and eight provinces", he says.
The eight provinces are not specified.
But Professor Mearsheimer said in an earlier interview, "Russia won't take the western half of Ukraine because the western half is predominantly ethnic Ukrainian, and they expect a backlash".
H)
Based on what he said, we can assume that the "eight provinces" the Professor refers to are the eight eastern provinces where many Russians live.
And with a figure of around 43%, he would expect Russia to get almost the eastern half of Ukraine.
I)
The aim, he says, is to make Ukraine a dysfunctional state, incapable of launching a large-scale war against Russia and unable to join NATO and the EU.
J)
According to the Professor, Russia wants Ukraine to be neutralised, meaning the West does not want Ukraine to be a bulwark against Russia.
If Russia took 43% of Ukraine, it would effectively neutralise Ukraine.
K)
But Ukraine wants a security supplement that only the West can provide. In other words, Ukraine will never come to terms with Russia, which wants to neutralise Ukraine.
If Russia takes 43% of Ukraine, Ukraine will try to take back the territory.
And he predicts that the West will support it.
L)
He further pointed out that "relations between Russia and the West will be terrible, and Russia will create problems in the West so that the Western countries do not create problems in Russia".
For example, fomenting discord between Western nations would prevent the CIA from orchestrating an uprising in Russia.
M)
The Professor's Recent paper title is "The Darkness Ahead".
2023.07.11 Latest interview with Prof. Mearsheimer + Comment No.3 [Ukrainian war will continue for another two years].
i)
Interview No.3:
How long will it take to reach the "cold peace" state?
It's a difficult question, but my guess is two years.
It is difficult because it is challenging to know the number of victims on the Ukrainian side.
The damage on the Ukrainian side is enormous, and there is a view that it will not last another year.
There is also the view that, although the damage is significant, there are enough human resources to continue for the next two to three years.
I don't know which is fitting because I have limited information.
ii)
Besides, Ukraine and the West have the advantage of spreading false damage reports.
In any case, I think it will take another two years before we reach a "cold peace" state.
However, Ukraine and the West are not satisfied with the situation, so there will likely be another battle at some point.
iii)
Explanation No. 3:
The focus of this interview is the prediction that the war in Ukraine will last another two years.
However, as the Professor points out, accurate predictions are difficult due to limited information and the possibility that the West and Ukraine are misrepresenting casualties.
Therefore, I think the next two years should be used as a forecast based on limited information.
iv)
If the next two years are correct, the current Ukrainian war will end in about three years and five months from around July 2025, i.e. from 24 February 2022 after the war started.
The following two years will also be a period of continuous fighting.
Ukraine crisis The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is not over.
The Professor expects an "ugly victory" for Russia, which will take about 43% of Ukrainian territory, and a "cold peace" there.
v)
In an earlier interview, the Professor gave the example of the Korean War armistice as a "cold state of peace".
The Professor has repeatedly pointed out that the war in Ukraine will not lead to a meaningful peace agreement.
And he expected it to end like the 38th parallel in the Korean War.
The Professor also said in this interview that even if Russia and Ukraine cease-fire, it is very likely that they will be at war again.
vi)
In other words, the sparks of fighting are expected to not be completely extinguished even after two more years.
Like him, the Professor points out in a later interview that China will benefit most from this prolonged war.
For us Japanese, it may be better that the Professor saved us sooner than expected.
Kan Ito has previously argued that Japan should cooperate with France in diplomatic efforts to end the war as soon as possible.
It would be nice if the Japanese government's Foreign Ministry acted on this request, but is there even a 1% chance of that happening?
That's the explanation.
2023.07.11 Professor Mearsheimer's latest interview + commentary No.1 [The Wagner Rebellion made the Russian army even stronger and Putin's position higher]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1HW4A1tghU
2023.07.11 Latest interview with Professor Mearsheimer + commentary No.2 [Russia takes about 43% of Ukraine's territory]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04yLpMXJajs
2023.07.11 Latest interview with Prof. Mearsheimer + commentary ③ [Ukrainian war will continue for two more years]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQ4tMOUu5w4&t=183s
China is 'big winner' in Ukraine-Russia war, says leading US political scientist
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gebimeED1zI&t=145s
US political scientist John Mearsheimer states that the West must prepare for an "ugly" Russian victory in Ukraine, with China emerging as the "big winner" in the conflict. The R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago spoke with Post columnist Alex Lo in this conversation about where the Ukraine war is headed.
Quo Vadis, Ukraine? A conversation with John J. Mearsheimer (EN)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W-b5zdDx10Y&t=0s
John J. Mearsheimer is one of the most prominent contemporary theorists in the field of International Relations. Upon my invitation, he came to Germany to discuss the perspectives of Ukraine with me. Our conversation revolved around whether the war in Ukraine could escalate into a global nuclear war—a terrifying scenario that until recently seemed unimaginable.