Turkey decides the future with or without Erdogan.

2023年05月16日

20年間政権を担ってきたエルドアン氏が大統領に留まるかどうかを決める、トルコ現代史で最も重要な選挙の投票が締め切られました。(English) Polls have closed in the most crucial election in Turkey's modern history to decide whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan will remain president after 20 years in power.

Turkey decides the future with or without Erdogan.

//Summary - Level-C2//

Turkey's critical elections may end President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's 20-year rule, with main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu promising to reverse Erdogan's acquired powers and return to a pro-Western stance. Soaring inflation and recent earthquakes preoccupy the voters, many of whom desire change. Around 44% inflation has hurt citizens, especially younger ones, who are expected to influence the election outcome heavily. A record 53% of Turks abroad have already voted. The election has been tense, and accusations of potential fraud have necessitated extra vigilance. The result will significantly impact Turkey's political landscape, with parliamentary control also at stake due to the nation's proportional voting system.

Polls have closed in the most crucial election in Turkey's modern history to decide whether Recep Tayyip Erdogan will remain president after 20 years in power.

His main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, promises to roll back many of the powers President Erdogan acquired after surviving a failed coup in 2016.

Backed by a broad opposition alliance, he has a real chance of winning.

Two issues have preoccupied Turkey's 64 million voters more than anything else: soaring inflation and earthquakes.

But many voters are also looking for change after two decades.

Mr Kilicdaroglu promises this Nato member state a return to a more pro-Western, democratic stance. At the same time, President Erdogan's Islamist-rooted government has accused the West of plotting to overthrow him.

The race had recently become febrile, with voters queuing at polling stations before they opened.

In Antakya, one of the cities worst hit by February's earthquakes, more than 100 buses arrived to bring people displaced to vote. Eleven of the country's provinces were affected.

To win outright on Sunday, the winner needs more than 50% of the vote. Otherwise, there will be a run-off in two weeks.

Mr Kilicdaroglu, 74, arrived at a packed polling station in an Ankara school to chants of "everything will be fine" while one voter shouted "grandpa", which has become a term of affection for young voters.

Sima, who came with her friend Pilay to greet him, said she was excited at the thought of change after over 20 years.

Turkey's rampant inflation is officially close to 44%, but many believe it is much higher.

In an optician's shop in Ankara, Burak Onder complained that hardly anyone was buying glasses any more: "People don't even ask for discounts; they can't afford it."

Inflation soared as President Erdogan abandoned orthodox economics and cut interest rates while most other countries raised theirs.

A few doors down the street, shopkeeper Rahime showed off the layers of price tags she piled on top of each other almost daily because of the soaring costs.

Rahime's 19-year-old daughter Sudenur feels she may be unable to fulfil her ambition to study sports science.

As a first-time voter, she and five million others like her are expected to make a big difference in the election outcome.

Many young voters want to see an end to restrictions on the media, which have been dramatically tightened under President Erdogan's rule.

Hours before the vote, Twitter announced it had agreed to restrict access to some content in Turkey, sparking angry reactions.

Turks have until 17:00 (14:00 GMT) to vote, although 1.76 million have already voted abroad in Germany, France and other countries - a record 53% turnout.

For many survivors forced to leave their homes after the 6 February earthquakes, voting means returning to their hometowns where they are registered.

Some of those returning to the southeastern city of Antakya had come to vote. Others took the opportunity to move back home, loading suitcases and heavy bags onto pick-up trucks.

"We want our standard of living to rise again. We have been through so much," said one man after an 18-hour bus journey with his wife and three children.

Throughout the day, long queues of voters lined up outside a series of containers converted into makeshift polling stations. The school where voting would typically occur and dozens of apartment blocks in the area have cracked walls and are deserted.

In Adana, where hundreds of people died in collapsed buildings, anger over the response is still palpable.

"I think the earthquake will seriously affect the outcome of the elections because people are angry with the government, if not the state," said Ezgi Karaher as she walked with her young daughter in the park.

Not everyone can go back. Two women in an Ankara supermarket told the BBC they would miss voting because they received medical treatment after the earthquake.

And tensions have risen in the run-up to polling day.

Opposition parties are deploying volunteers to ensure that the 192,000 ballot boxes and results are adequately checked to avoid the risk of fraud.

One of the four presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, withdrew three days ago, citing a smear campaign of "character assassination". But it was too late to remove his name from the ballot.

The presidential race has become so intense and the stakes so high that campaigning has gone down to the wire.

President Erdogan, 69, was filmed stretching election rules by addressing worshippers after leading Saturday evening prayers at the Hagia Sophia mosque in Istanbul.

A video shared on social media showed him telling worshippers that the Muslim world was closely following events in Turkey.

His choice of venue and decision to make a political speech after the official end of the election campaign was controversial and highly symbolic for his supporters.

Hagia Sophia, originally built as an Orthodox Christian cathedral, was a mosque under the Ottomans. But Atatürk turned it into a museum, and President Erdogan defied Turkey's secular founder and made it a mosque again in 2020.

The ultra-nationalist Sinan Ogan is the only other presidential candidate.

But Turks are also voting for parliament and its 600 members. Although they have lost powers to Mr Erdogan's executive presidency since 2018, control of parliament remains critical to passing laws.

Under Turkey's proportional voting system, parties form alliances to reach the 7% threshold needed to enter parliament.

The president's AK Party, which has Islamist roots, is part of the People's Alliance with the nationalist MHP and two other parties. In comparison, Mr Kilicdaroglu's centre-left Republican People's Party works with the nationalist Good Party and four smaller parties in the Nation Alliance.

The pro-Kurdish HDP, Turkey's second-largest opposition party, is part of another alliance but has been campaigning under a different name, the Green Left.

//New words//

Please list the simple meanings of the following words and short examples of usage.

1. Poll: A survey or vote. Example: "The latest poll shows the mayor's approval rating at 60%."

2. Pivotal: Of crucial importance about the success of something else. Example: "The pivotal moment in the game was the quarterback's injury."

3. Acquire: Obtain or gain something. Example: "She acquired a new car after her promotion."

4. Soar: Increase rapidly above the usual level. Example: "His temperature soared after the infection set in."

5. Islamist-rooted: Having origins or connections to Islamic political ideologies. Example: "The Islamist-rooted party won the elections."

6. Accuse: Claim that someone has done something wrong. Example: "He was accused of theft."

7. Febrile:

Having or showing the symptoms of a fever; intensely nervous or excited. Example: "The febrile political atmosphere led to many protests."

8. Province: A principal administrative division in certain countries. Example: "She moved to the province of British Columbia."

9. Otherwise:

In the circumstances different from those present or considered; or else. Example: "You should wear a coat. Otherwise, you might catch a cold."

10. Affection: A gentle feeling of fondness or liking. Example: "She has a deep affection for her grandmother."

11. Rampant: Flourishing or spreading unchecked. Example: "Rampant inflation is causing economic instability."

12. Afford: Have enough money to pay for something. Example: "I can't afford a new car now."

13. Restriction: A limiting condition or measure. Example: "There are restrictions on the amount of liquids you can carry onto a plane."

14. Tighten: Make or become tight or tighter. Example: "You need to tighten the screws on that chair."

15. Ballot: A voting process in writing and typically in secret. Example: "The election will be decided by ballot."

16. Collapse: Fall down or in; give way. Example: "The roof collapsed under the weight of the snow."

17. Palpable: Able to be touched or felt; intensely felt. Example: "The tension in the room was palpable."

18. Resentful: Feeling or expressing bitterness at having been mistreated. Example: "He felt resentful about being passed over for promotion."

19. Properly: In the correct or usual way. Example: "Make sure you properly secure your seatbelt before driving."

20. Scrutinised: Examine or inspect closely and thoroughly. Example: "The teacher scrutinised the students' assignments."

21. Fraud: Wrongful or criminal deception intended to result in financial or personal gain. Example: "He was convicted of fraud."

22. Smear campaign: A plan to discredit a public figure by making false or dubious accusations. Example: "The politician was the target of a smear campaign."

23. Character assassination: The malicious and unjustified harming of a person's good reputation. Example: "The newspaper was accused of character assassination."

24. Stretching election rules: To go beyond or not strictly follow the set rules of an election. Example: "The candidate was accused of stretching election rules by campaigning beyond the allotted time."

25. Worshippers: People who show respect and love for a god, especially by praying in a religious building. Example: "The worshippers gather in the church every Sunday morning."

26. Controversial: Giving rise or likely to give rise to public disagreement. Example: "His controversial statements caused a lot of debates."

27. Cathedral: The principal church of a diocese with which a bishop is officially associated. Example: "The Notre Dame Cathedral is a historic landmark in Paris."

28. Defied: Openly resist or refuse to obey. Example: "She defied her parents' orders and went to the party."

29. Secular: Denoting attitudes, activities, or other things without a religious or spiritual basis. Example: "The country has a secular government, separate from any religious institutions."

30. Ultra-nationalist: Extreme devotion to their nation, often to the detriment of foreign countries. Example: "The ultra-nationalist party was known for its anti-immigration stance."

31. Legislation: Laws considered collectively. Example: "The government passed new legislation to improve the education system."

32. Centre-left Republican People: Refers to a political party or individuals who align with moderately left-wing ideologies but maintain particular right-wing or centrist views. It seems to refer to the Republican People's Party in Turkey. Example: "The centre-left Republican People's Party is pushing for healthcare reform."

33. Pro-Kurdish: Supporting the political rights or independence of the Kurdish people. Example: "The pro-Kurdish party advocates for greater autonomy for the Kurdish region."

Turkey decides on future with or without Erdogan

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65581251

Turkish Presidential Elections Headwind for President Erdogan? Why?

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/special/international_news_navi/articles/qa/2023/05/12/31568.html

Why Turkey Decided to "Cut Interest Rates" Even with an Inflation Rate of 80%, the "Real Aim" of the Erdoğan Administration

https://www.sbbit.jp/article/fj/94357

//Summary -Level-C2//

Latin American countries, including Argentina and Venezuela, tolerate high inflation due to their export-driven economic structures. Unlike in Russia, governments often stimulate the economy, ignoring inflation's impacts on society taking inflation; inflation erodes people's savings and reduces government debt, effectively acting as a tax increase. Turkish President Erdogan seems to share this perspective, sidelining experts advocating for interest rate hikes to curb inflation. Despite similarities with Japan, Turkey opts for the Latin American model, disregarding inflation while preserving the economy. UCombatinginflation typically necessitates raising interest rates, creating a recession, or implementing structural reforms to boost productivity.

Do you dare leave inflation alone?

Latin American countries are notorious for inflation. For example, Argentina has often experienced hyperinflation, and Venezuela is experiencing uncontrolled inflation. However, there are significant differences between Latin America and Turkey. This is a fundamental difference in the perception of inflation itself.

In the case of Latin American countries, rather than being unable to stop inflation, society as a whole tends to tolerate excessive inflation. The economic structure is centred on the export of agricultural products, and there is a strong belief that a weakening currency will benefit exporters. In Japan, there is an intense desire for a weaker yen to strengthen export competitiveness, but the basic scheme is the same. Landowners are at the heart of the economy and are less cautious about inflation as land prices rise with inflation.

The government knows this situation and has repeatedly implemented sizeable fiscal stimulus packages to gain popularity, ignoring the resulting inflation. In Argentina, there have been large demonstrations, particularly among low-income earners, in response to rising wheat prices, and some citizens are vehemently opposed to inflation. However, there is no doubt that society is tolerant of inflation, unlike Russia, where there is strong resistance to inflation.

Incidentally, as inflation progresses, people's deposits will be eroded by the amount of price increases, while the amount of price increases will reduce government debt. In other words, income is transferred from people's savings to the government as inflation progresses, so inflation effectively acts as a tax increase. However, as many citizens are unaware of this mechanism, many politicians believe it would be easier to print money and cause inflation. Central and South American countries are basically following this mechanism.

Using power to remove experts

Does the Erdogan government in Turkey, like those in Latin America, believe it is better for the government to deliberately create inflation and rob people of their savings? Although it is challenging to know Erdogan's true intentions from the outside, there is a strong possibility that at least one mechanism is at work that is different from that in Latin American countries.

In his parliamentary speech, Mr Erdogan insisted that "we cannot follow the same path as those who defend interest rates" and "remove the burden of interest rates from the public" and that higher interest rates will play a role in curbing inflation. Instead, he develops a mysterious theory that it will make inflation worse.

On the other hand, central bankers and market participants, following economic theory, believe that fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts should be avoided during periods of inflation and argue that inflation should be curbed by raising interest rates, even at the expense of the economy. It is safe to assume that Mr Erdogan is exercising his power and suppressing the opinions of experts and practitioners.

Even in Japan, some argue that a robust fiscal stimulus is needed to curb inflation.

Although Turkey's case is extreme, it has similarities with Japan in that there is upward pressure on interest rates and downward pressure on the exchange rate. If prices continue to rise, there will almost certainly be a significant debate about prioritising a rate hike or continuing large-scale easing at whatever cost.

Whatever the cause, there is only one way to deal with inflation.

But, again, according to economic theory, when inflation occurs, there is no solution other than to raise interest rates to slow down the economy and suppress prices by creating a recession. However, in the long run, it is possible to change the industrial structure to revive innovation and implement reforms to achieve higher productivity, even when prices are high.

Some argue that since cost-push and demand-pull inflation are different types, the methods of dealing with them are also other. Still, such an interpretation does not exist in economic theory.

First, persistent inflation is caused by a combination of factors, and a single element does not cause large-scale inflation. Moreover, when inflation occurs, whatever the cause, it is necessary to raise interest rates to combat it.

In other words, as an anti-inflationary measure, there are only two options: the Russian model, which raises interest rates in anticipation of a recession (the US can be said to have a similar stance), or the Latin American model, which ignores inflation without sacrificing the economy and depriving people of their deposits. Instead, Turkey is ultimately choosing the latter path (although Mr Erdogan may not be aware of it).

Incidentally, Japan's response to the inflation caused by the oil shock in the 1970s was in line with economic theory. First, the government reined in the economy by raising interest rates and freezing fiscal stimulus and then increased up-front investment in energy-saving technology to weather the oil crisis. Then, over time, it endured inflation by expanding supply capacity. In Japan, too, the people would have to make an extensive choice if inflation were to take hold.

Turkey presidential election likely to go to runoff Erdogan's lead fails to reach majority.

https://jp.reuters.com/article/turkey-election-idJPKBN2X50FW

Incumbent President Erdoğan, 69, has failed to reach a majority in the presidential elections held in Turkey on the 14th, even though he leads the opposition coalition candidate Kırtıdarğlu, and is expected to proceed to the runoff on the 28th.

According to the Anatolian News Agency, Erdogan won 49.39% of the votes, while Kurtidaruol won 44.92% after about 97% of the votes were counted. Electoral officials said Erdogan had won 49.49% of the vote when 91.93% of the votes were counted.

"We already have a 2.6 million vote lead over our opponents, and the official results are expected to be even higher," Erdogan told his supporters, who had fared better than expected.

A nation opposed to independence from around the world, Kurdish people's 'earnest wish.'

https://withnews.jp/article/f0170925004qq000000000000000W03510101qq000015948A

On September 25, 2017, the minority Kurdish people will hold a referendum on independence in Iraq in the Middle East. However, almost all countries called for "cancellation" or "postponement", and the United States and Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran, who usually tend to have different opinions, also agreed to vote against the vote. So why is there no support for the Kurdish people, who are said to be the "largest ethnic group without a country" and have a total population of 30 million, mainly in four countries in the Middle East?

There are various theories depending on the statistics. Still, the total population, which is said to reach 30 million, is more significant than Australia (approximately 24.6 million) and North Korea (about 25.5 million), Malaysia (32.2 million) and Canada (36.6 million).

Even so, northern Iraq's situation is unstable, with fighters from the "Isla" ic State" (IS" remaining. Many countries agree that they want to avoid further chaos and that chaos could be a boon for IS.

Add info)

Q1. The final battle is still on the 28th, but why do you think Erdogan dominates the Turkish presidential election?

His earthquake protection is not good enough, young people are suffering from high inflation and cannot find jobs, and Kilicdaroglu is not gaining popularity despite 53% of Turks abroad voting.

Does that mean Kilicdaroglu's policy of sending immigrants home and the pro-Western stance were disapproved?

A1->

Erdogan's dominance in the Turkish presidential election can be attributed to a few factors. First, despite challenges like poor earthquake protection and high inflation impacting young people's job prospects, Erdogan has managed to maintain strong support, mainly due to his political experience and charismatic leadership. During his tenure, Erdogan's party, the AKP, has also made significant infrastructure improvements and increased access to healthcare and social services, which appeal to many voters.

Kilicdaroglu's policies might not have resonated as expected with the electorate. For example, some voters could view his stance on sending immigrants home as too harsh or unrealistic. Furthermore, his pro-Western stance might not align with a section of the electorate that prefers Erdogan's more nationalist and conservative approach. It's also possible that Kilicdaroglu's party, CHP, has not been as effective in its campaigning or cannot provide a compelling alternative to Erdogan's leadership.

Q2. Please list five advantages and five disadvantages when Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu are elected.

A2->

Advantages and disadvantages can vary widely based on one's perspective, but here are some potential considerations:

If Erdogan is elected:

Advantages:

Stability: Erdogan's continued rule could offer political stability, given his long-standing tenure and experience.

Infrastructure development: His government has been known for significant infrastructural improvements.

Healthcare and social services: His tenure has seen increased access to these services.

Nationalist policies: Supporters appreciate his strong nationalist stance and defence of Turkish interests.

International solid presence: Erdogan has a strong persona on the international stage, and his leadership could continue to assert Turkey's influence globally.

Disadvantages:

Autocratic tendencies: Critics argue Erdogan has displayed authoritarian tendencies that could affect democratic institutions.

Economic instability: Turkey has faced significant inflation and economic challenges under his leadership.

Press freedom: There have been concerns about the state of press freedom and human rights under his rule.

Foreign relations: Erdogan's aggressive foreign policy has occasionally strained relations with the West and neighbouring countries.

Polarization: His nationalist and conservative policies have led to societal polarization.

If Kilicdaroglu is elected:

Advantages:

Change: His election could represent a significant shift in Turkish politics, potentially rejuvenating the political landscape.

Pro-Western stance: This could improve relations with Western countries and potentially result in stronger alliances.

Democratic values: Kilicdaroglu's party, CHP, has traditionally stood for solid democratic institutions and secularism.

Economic policy: His policies might bring a different approach to addressing economic issues like inflation and unemployment.

Immigrant policy: His stance on sending immigrants home might resonate with citizens concerned about immigration.

Disadvantages:

Inexperience: Kilicdaroglu has never served as President, which could bring uncertainties.

Policy implications: His policy of sending immigrants home could have a humanitarian impact and might not be feasible.

Societal divide: His pro-Western stance might not resonate with more conservative sections of Turkish society.

Economic risk: Any significant shift in policy could introduce economic uncertainties.

Potential instability: A transition of power could lead to short-term political instability.

Q3. If Erdogan is elected president, will you support a few more earthquake countermeasures, relax inflation measures a little, give subsidies to the people, help young people find jobs, and partially recognize Kurdish autonomous regions together and cooperate?

What else do you think you can do to support them?

A3->

While I, as artificial intelligence, don't have personal opinions or the ability to support policies, I can provide an analysis of possible actions Erdogan might take to address these issues if elected:

1. Earthquake Countermeasures: Erdogan could increase funding for infrastructure improvements to withstand earthquakes, such as reinforcing buildings and other structures. Additionally, he could invest in early warning systems and improve education on earthquake preparedness.

2. Inflation Measures: Erdogan could implement various monetary and fiscal policies to combat inflation. These could include tightening monetary policy (raising interest rates), reducing government spending, or even seeking assistance from international financial institutions.

3. Subsidies and Support for the People: Erdogan could introduce or increase subsidies on essential goods and services to help ease the cost of living. He might also consider implementing social safety net programs to support low-income households.

4. Youth Employment: Erdogan could develop programs for job creation for young people. This could involve investing in sectors with high growth potential or creating vocational training programs to equip young people with in-demand skills.

5. Recognizing Kurdish Autonomous Regions: While a politically sensitive topic, Erdogan could seek dialogue with Kurdish representatives to discuss possibilities for greater autonomy, potentially contributing to stability in the region.

To further support these initiatives, Erdogan might consider the following:

6. Healthcare Improvements: Improving access to and quality healthcare services, particularly in rural or underserved areas.

7. Education Reform: Investing in education, including programs to improve educational outcomes and reduce disparities between regions and socioeconomic groups.

8. Foreign Relations: Continuing to cultivate diplomatic relationships to attract foreign investment and secure Turkey's place in the global community.

9. Green Economy: Investing in green technologies and industries could create jobs and contribute to sustainable development.

10. Transparency and Accountability: Strengthening democratic institutions and improving government transparency and accountability could help to build public trust and promote stability.

Q4. What is currently stopping them from running?

Even if people and young people suffer from soaring inflation, why do you help the construction industry with a support group?

Also, why do they kill or imprison Kurds?

A4->

There are several reasons why the issues you mentioned might not be immediately addressed, even in the face of public pressure:

1. Political Considerations: Politicians often need to balance the demands of different interest groups. In the case of the construction industry, it is a significant part of the Turkish economy and a major employer. It's also worth noting that the industry can have influential ties to the government. Therefore, Erdogan may prioritize policies that support this industry.

2. Economic Constraints: High inflation and economic instability can limit the government's ability to spend on public services, job creation, or subsidies. Addressing inflation often requires harsh measures that can be politically unpopular, such as raising interest rates or reducing government spending.

3. Security Concerns: The conflict with Kurdish groups is a complex and long-standing issue in Turkey. The government may view certain Kurdish groups as a threat to national security, which could justify harsh measures in their view. However, such actions can exacerbate tensions and conflict, making a peaceful resolution more difficult.

4. Authoritarianism: If a government leans towards tyranny, it may be less responsive to public demands and more willing to use force or imprisonment to quell dissent. The perceived need to maintain control and stability can overshadow concerns about human rights or democratic principles.

Remember, these are potential reasons, not justifications. Nevertheless, they illustrate some of the complexities and challenges involved in governing, particularly in a country like Turkey, grappling with various economic, social, and political issues.

Turkey decides the future with or without Erdogan.